My betting system

We all know that the betting houses make their profits based on the so-called margin or explained in other words the difference between the chance for something to happen and the rate proposed by the bookmakers for the same event to happen.

To understand even better this so-called margin I am going to give you an example. It is about betting systems I used a few months ago which covered two exactly opposite ways of betting but both ended absolutely fatal to my bank.
As I said, a few months ago I decided to try a new betting system. It was about football matches where we have a very strong favourite against an underdog. I decided to bet under on these matches with rates on Asian handicap which return me odds around 2. My logic was simple. The bookmakers expect my betting system bettors to put more money on over’s on such games and because of that I assumed that the betting houses had previously overstated the border of goals so it would be easier to spread the bets between the two possible outcomes for this betting option.

I started checking this betting system on a paper sheet, betting on every match with a strong favourite and Asian offered for scored goals on evens.

At first everything was great. Until the 35th match I had a positive result. From then things turned and when I bet on my final 100th bet the result was that I lost 10% of my bankroll.

This 10 percent loss is exactly the margin which gives the profit to the betting houses. To prove it I started betting on the same conditions but I turned to the opposite bet. I chose the same matches, but I bet on over on every match which gave me evens.

The result was even more staggering as if I was playing for real money I would lose 23% of my bankroll. Of all 100 bets the winners were 51, but due to lower odds I lost.

The only thing that comforted me somehow from these two experiments was that at least my preliminary guess was correct and that to bet on under on these matches is more profitable than to bet on over. Anyway, this doesn’t help much, since both methods are losing and one can’t make profit from such betting systems.

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