We all know that the betting houses make their profits based on the so-called margin or explained in other words the difference between the chance for something to happen and the rate proposed by the bookmakers for the same event to happen.
To understand even better this so-called margin I am going to give you an example. It is about betting systems I used a few months ago which covered two exactly opposite ways of betting but both ended absolutely fatal to my bank.
As I said, a few months ago I decided to try a new betting system. It was about football matches where we have a very strong favourite against an underdog. I decided to bet under on these matches with rates on Asian handicap which return me odds around 2. My logic was simple. The bookmakers expect bettors to put more money on over’s on such games and because of that I assumed that the betting houses had previously overstated the border of goals so it would be easier to spread the bets between the two possible outcomes for this betting option.
I started checking this betting system on a paper sheet, betting on every match with a strong favourite and Asian offered for scored goals on evens.
At first everything was great. Until the 35th match I had a positive result. From then things turned and when I bet on my final 100th bet the result was that I lost 10% of my bankroll.
This 10 percent loss is exactly the margin which gives the profit to the betting houses. To prove it I started betting on the same conditions but I turned to the opposite bet. I chose the same matches, but I bet on over on every match which gave me evens.
The result was even more staggering as if I was playing for real money I would lose 23% of my bankroll. Of all 100 bets the winners were 51, but due to lower odds I lost.
The only thing that comforted me somehow from these two experiments was that at least my preliminary guess was correct and that to bet on under on these matches is more profitable than to bet on over. Anyway, this doesn’t help much, since both methods are losing and one can’t make profit from such betting systems.
I am going to present you a betting system which is connected with prediction for a quarter with most scored points in an NBA match. I have been using this betting system for more than three years and it has always brought me success.
As I said at the beginning, the essence of this betting system is to bet on the quarter with most scored points in the NBA games. Each match in NBA is divided into four parts with 12 minutes each. The bookmakers generally offer odds from 2.7 to 3.2 for the first part to be with most scored points, the second quarter is usually estimated with 3.6 and the third, which is generally the least likely part for this betting option has the highest coefficient. Normally it is offered something around 4, but sometimes the odds are even bigger and they go up to 5.5. The last quarter of the match generally gives odds around3.5.
How to determine which part to bet? This is a process that begins with the compilation of a betting database of at least ten matches for each team. In one excel sheet I make data for every team and the most scored quarter of every match. When I get data from the last 10 played games for each team, then it comes the time for betting.
I check every match and gathering the most scored quarters for both teams and multiply the result by the offered from the betting house odds. If the score is above 107, then I bet on that quarter. In this calculation 100 is the point where I neither win nor lose. Below 100 means that in the long turn I will lose my money and above 100 means that after a certain period of time I will gain some profit. I put those extra 7% to make sure that I have some profit in advance.
Apart from that, I put one more barrier on my bets. I make my betting system even more secured. I write down every bet I make and I sort them by odds. Then I calculate them so to see which odds are giving me profit and which are not. I bet only on these which have the result above 107.
A necessary clarification. NBA matches can end with two quarters or even more with the same amount of scored points. In this case, I write both as winning because the betting house shares the win between the equal parts when two or more are most scored parts with the same amount of scored points.
For the end take a look on this great video with top ten Chicago’s best plays during the last season.
The first matches of the last qualifying round of the Champions League will be played tonight and one of them certainly got my attention as a potential betting match. It is the match between FC Copenhagen and Lille, the winner of which will play among the top European teams for the distribution of big money from the Champions League.
The French Lille has already played two matches of Ligue 1 and what really impressed me was the fact that in those two games the team managed to create 20 chances for goal. Only the super team of PSG could do more in their first two matches, creating a total of 25 goal attempts. In their two matches so far Lille managed to score three goals, which is more than promising for the team. It seems that this year the players of Lille will keep their attacking style with many situations at both goal lines.
On the other hand, FC Copenhagen has played six matches so far in the Danish championship. The team has eight goals in its three games as the host and with confidence has taken the first place in Denmark after four wins and two draws.
I didn’t watch FC Copenhagen’s matches in the Danish league, but it seems that they managed to score goals. In the previous round of qualifications for the Champions League the Danish team made 0-0 at home with Bruges from Belgium and won 3-2 as a guest.
Weighing the fact that Lille create many goal attempts in France and FC Copenhagen make the same in Denmark I think the chances for a high scoring match tonight between these two teams are good enough.
But what do the betting houses offer for such a prediction? Chances for over 2.5 goals in the match were quite good – about 2.25 in the different bookmakers. That’s why I will move to the safer betting option on Asian handicap of over 2;2.5 goals, which comes with odds of 2 which satisfies me enough.